Hi. I’m Jeff Tucker, principal economist at Windermere Real Estate, and this is a Local Look at the December 2024 data from the Northwest MLS.
Hi. I’m Jeff Tucker, principal economist at Windermere Real Estate, and this is a Local Look at the February 2025 data from the Northwest MLS.
After an impressive Q4, and a decent start to the year in January, this February saw buyer activity – and listing activity – slow down a bit relative to last year. I think the rise in mortgage rates back to around 7% this winter has finally cooled off some of the buyer enthusiasm we saw in Q4.
Here are the four key metrics I watch to track supply and demand in the market: closed and pending sales, which tell us a lot about demand; and listings – new and active – which tell us a lot about supply.
Across the Northwest MLS, closed sales of single-family homes were almost exactly flat year-over-year, at 3,550 vs last year’s 3,553. Pending sales, which will mostly close in March, dropped 4% from the same month last year. One extenuating circumstance was we had 1 less business day this February, since last year was a leap year, but this is still looking like a cooler market in terms of demand than we saw in Q4.
On the supply side, about 5% fewer new listings hit the market this February compared to last year’s, while the pool of active listings in the reservoir ended the month 33% higher than February 2024’s inventory.
The final key metric to check in on: the median price for those closed single-family home sales climbed just 2% year-over year in February, from about $635,000 to $650,000. That represents a further cooldown from median price growth we’d seen in Q4, and it seems to indicate that the higher levels of inventory are putting some competitive pressure on sellers, preventing prices from rising too much.
Putting it all together, this looks like a market where the normal seasonal upswing in sales and prices has begun, but the year-over-year comparisons are looking a lot cooler than they were throughout Q4 and into January. I think that cooldown was mostly due to interest rates rebounding this winter, which discouraged buyers, so looking ahead, if we see the recent dip in interest rates in late February and early March actually stick, I could see some of that heat coming back into the market right as we hit the spring buying season.
Now I’ll dig into the four counties encompassing the greater Seattle area, where a similar cooldown played out in February.
Residential closed sales were flat year over year here in King County; inched up 1% across the Sound in Kitsap County; dipped 2% in Pierce County, including Tacoma; and fell 3% in Snohomish County, including Everett. So for the 4-county region as a whole, that’s a dip of 1% from the same month last year. Not bad but it is a slowdown after 6% growth in January.
The median sale price was mostly flat, locally: 0% change from last year in King County and Snohomish County, up 4% in Kitsap County, and up 5% in Pierce County.
Looking ahead, pending sales were flat or down locally: down 4% in King, down 16% in Kitsap, flat in Pierce, and down 10% in Snohomish County. Altogether that makes a 6% decline across the 4 counties, suggesting we’ll see closings continue to fall year-over-year in March.
On the supply side, the 4-county greater Seattle area had about 35% more active listings at the end of February than the same time last year. That inventory growth comes in spite of a 7% decline across the region in the flow of new listings this February. Again, that was potentially impacted by the slightly shorter month, but it does suggest that sellers haven’t been flocking to list their homes in greater numbers yet this year. It could also be due to sellers jumping the gun on listing: year to date, new listings are up 8%, thanks to very impressive new listings in January. Now I’ll be curious to see if the recent dip in rates can help re-start the listing pipeline locally.
Hi. I’m Jeff Tucker, principal economist at Windermere Real Estate, and this is a Local Look at the February 2025 data from the Northwest MLS.
After an impressive Q4, and a decent start to the year in January, this February saw buyer activity – and listing activity – slow down a bit relative to last year. I think the rise in mortgage rates back to around 7% this winter has finally cooled off some of the buyer enthusiasm we saw in Q4.
Here are the four key metrics I watch to track supply and demand in the market: closed and pending sales, which tell us a lot about demand; and listings – new and active – which tell us a lot about supply.
Across the Northwest MLS, closed sales of single-family homes were almost exactly flat year-over-year, at 3,550 vs last year’s 3,553. Pending sales, which will mostly close in March, dropped 4% from the same month last year. One extenuating circumstance was we had 1 less business day this February, since last year was a leap year, but this is still looking like a cooler market in terms of demand than we saw in Q4.
On the supply side, about 5% fewer new listings hit the market this February compared to last year’s, while the pool of active listings in the reservoir ended the month 33% higher than February 2024’s inventory.
The final key metric to check in on: the median price for those closed single-family home sales climbed just 2% year-over year in February, from about $635,000 to $650,000. That represents a further cooldown from median price growth we’d seen in Q4, and it seems to indicate that the higher levels of inventory are putting some competitive pressure on sellers, preventing prices from rising too much.
Putting it all together, this looks like a market where the normal seasonal upswing in sales and prices has begun, but the year-over-year comparisons are looking a lot cooler than they were throughout Q4 and into January. I think that cooldown was mostly due to interest rates rebounding this winter, which discouraged buyers, so looking ahead, if we see the recent dip in interest rates in late February and early March actually stick, I could see some of that heat coming back into the market right as we hit the spring buying season.
Now I’ll dig into the four counties encompassing the greater Seattle area, where a similar cooldown played out in February.
Residential closed sales were flat year over year here in King County; inched up 1% across the Sound in Kitsap County; dipped 2% in Pierce County, including Tacoma; and fell 3% in Snohomish County, including Everett. So for the 4-county region as a whole, that’s a dip of 1% from the same month last year. Not bad but it is a slowdown after 6% growth in January.
The median sale price was mostly flat, locally: 0% change from last year in King County and Snohomish County, up 4% in Kitsap County, and up 5% in Pierce County.
Looking ahead, pending sales were flat or down locally: down 4% in King, down 16% in Kitsap, flat in Pierce, and down 10% in Snohomish County. Altogether that makes a 6% decline across the 4 counties, suggesting we’ll see closings continue to fall year-over-year in March.
On the supply side, the 4-county greater Seattle area had about 35% more active listings at the end of February than the same time last year. That inventory growth comes in spite of a 7% decline across the region in the flow of new listings this February. Again, that was potentially impacted by the slightly shorter month, but it does suggest that sellers haven’t been flocking to list their homes in greater numbers yet this year. It could also be due to sellers jumping the gun on listing: year to date, new listings are up 8%, thanks to very impressive new listings in January. Now I’ll be curious to see if the recent dip in rates can help re-start the listing pipeline locally.
